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April 16, 2005

Metaphysical Question du Jour

Can a large scale protest take place in a police state without the government's knowledge and/or approval?

Consider: a protest against Japan.

shanghaiprotest.jpg
(Image courtesy of CNN)

Compared to: a protest for democracy.

china_tanks.gif
(Image courtesy of historywiz.com)

I don't doubt that the Chinese people at some level have a visceral dislike for the Japanese. They have plenty of historical resons for it.

But clearly the riots against Japan are state sponsored. Let's not have any illusions about that.

I think the Chinese are sending Japan a message, which is that Japan had better go along with Chinese dominance in Asia, or else.

Personally, I think that is a pretty stupid thing for China to do. Japan is sleeping in the same pacifist slumber as Europe, under the blanket of protection that we provide. Last thing they should do is to wake Japan up.

Remember, in World War II, China did not defeat Japan militarily. China got beating after beating after beating while the U.S. fleet swept the ocean clean and got bases close enough for the atom bombs that forced Japan out of the war. A remilitarized Japan is to be feared. If Japan wanted to develop one, it could have the atom bomb in a year -- in shorter time, if we were to sponsor them. Granted the Japanese are not fans of the atom bomb; they have plenty of historical reasons for that. But threats can change everything.

UPDATE: Instapundit and Powerline have more.

March 8, 2005

Metaphysical Questions, #5

How do we know when a writer on the internet is insane?

I mean this question seriously. This is a written medium in which the authors are largely hidden, so we can't very well look into the eyes of the writer and tell that he's crazy.

Here's what got me thinking about this.

I have been looking into what I am calling "the curious case of Army Field Manual 30-31B", which is a conspiracy theory making the rounds in left-wing circles.

FM 30-31B purports to be an Army field manual that instructs secret Army units on how to conduct terrorist operations in friendly countries. The goal? To create a climate of political uncertainty and fear that drives the populace into the arms of the allied government.

Naturally, a document such as this, if it existed, and if it were real, would be a scandal of enormous proportions.

A document exists, this much we know. The U.S. government has, apparently, through documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, maintained that the document is a Cold-War era Soviet forgery. My source for this, which certainly seems a plausible explanation, is a website to which I would not prefer to link, as they are routinely visited by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security for posting documents of a sensitive nature on their site such as aerial photographs of installations the U.S. government wouldn't want terrorists to know about. You can find the site easily enough if you know how to use Google; I'd just rather not point you there, out of concern that someone might construe the link as an endorsement of the site.

So -- a supposed Army Field Manual advocating terrorism is challenged by a website that is itself posting things on the web that are of a nature so sensitive that no reasonable person would want to advertise them.

Do you begin to get why I asked the metaphysical question above? To even begin to research the FM 30-31B conspiracy, I had to leave the realm of the well-traveled, the sane, the ordinary, and wander into the lairs of websites that I would prefer to not know even existed. I had to use a crazy person to debunk a crazier person.

So how do we know a persone is insane? Maybe when he starts to wander into spaces of the web where the crazies argue among themselves.

Consider this thread in Democratic Underground. I can smell in it, almost immediately, the unhealthy whiff of conspiracy, the shared assumptions of the participants, the willingness to post as irrefutable fact things that have not been established as actual events or proof, the assignment of motives and blame to people these commenters have never met. It has mushroomed into a 207 post welter of monstrous speculation. The crazies here are not so much arguing among themselves as they are cooperating to build their own private reality. One in which U.S. soldiers are routinely used to assassinate foreign civilians by nefarious "higher ups" in the U.S., and maybe also the Italian government. None of them has yet postulated a P2 Masonic Lodge connection (go research that conspiracy if you have a few months on your hands), and I haven't yet seen the Illuminati or the Vatican mentioned, so it's not a complete little conspiracy edifice yet. But give them time.

I guess the possibility "hey guys, it was an accident" never occurred to them.

So who can you trust? When do you know you're reading the words of the sane, and when have you wandered into the lunatic ward? How do you know you've not only wandered in to the lunatic ward, but have officially checked in to stay?

It's getting harder and harder to tell.

February 16, 2005

Metaphysical Questions, #4

Instapundit is mentioning this. I'm polite to Glenn, because

a) he deserves it, and
b) he could destroy me ("and your little blog, too") by a mere sentence on his site, if he so chose,

so I won't say he's plugging his appearance on the Charlie Rose show, but it did raise an interesting question for my Metaphysics department: if you're on a TV show, and no one is watching, does it still count as being on TV?

February 11, 2005

Metaphysical Questions, #3


If Oliver Willis gets paid to blog, shouldn't I be living in a completely germ-free penthouse at the top of my Las Vegas casino by now?

No link provided. Really, you shouldn't read him. Makes me want to take a bath in Lysol after each visit.

Germs. Germs'll kill you.

February 9, 2005

Metaphysical Questions, #2

If the U.S. Air Force were to drop 100,000 DVDs of Team America: World Police into North Korea, and the citizens there had neither DVD players nor the electricity with which to power DVD players, would it still be considered treason for North Koreans to possess them?

My guess is that Kim's answer would be "yes."

January 13, 2005

Metaphysical Questions, #1

I wonder who would win in a gangland rumble between the bloggers of The Corner and of The New Criterion.

In a followup question, I'm wondering what the cause of such a rumble would be. I'm torn between

a) Star Trek, or
b) the writings of Reinhold Niebuhr.

Either way . . . tough call.

But I'm betting that Derbyshire would be surprisingly tough to kill.

And, speaking from personal experience, you'll want to avoid Stuttaford when he's got a broken beer bottle in his hand.